Oil edges lower after Trump’s energy ceasefire announcement
Brent futures were down 0.11% at $104.61 a barrel at 06:27 GMT on October 12, as traders weighed Donald Trump’s energy ceasefire announcement and potential Russian diesel supplies.
West Texas Intermediate traded at $91.36, down 49 cents or 0.53%. Brent’s decline was 11 cents. Both benchmarks had fallen more than 1% earlier in the session. ICE gasoil futures dropped 3% to $1,436 per tonne, Reuters reported.
Trump said on October 11 that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacking each other’s energy facilities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was still awaiting details, while Russia did not comment in the report. The announcement therefore did not establish independently that a mutually confirmed ceasefire was in force.
On October 9, Trump had announced immediate Russian diesel supplies of more than 300,000 tonnes, or 2.25 million barrels, followed by 500,000 tonnes in November and another one million tonnes thereafter. Reuters cited the International Energy Agency’s forecast of global daily diesel consumption near 29 million barrels.
KCM Trade analyst Tim Waterer said the announcements eased immediate supply pressure but that doubts about the ceasefire’s durability could limit the price decline. IEA chief Fatih Birol called on members on October 11 to assess further diesel releases and accelerate outstanding commitments.
Security risks continued to support Brent above $100. Reuters reported that the Houthis claimed the October 10 Riyadh airport strike, with a reported toll of 13 dead and more than 300 injured, and that Saudi authorities reported injuries in another attack on October 11. Trump said on October 10 that Washington was considering joining Saudi strikes on the group.
UK Maritime Trade Operations also reported weekend incidents involving a drone-struck tanker near Sohar, Oman, and another vessel hit by an unidentified projectile in the Strait of Hormuz.
Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven raised their December Brent forecast to $90 from $85, estimating a risk premium slightly above $20. They forecast WTI averaging $81 in December 2026 and $73 in 2027. Separately, Shell, Chevron and BP were preparing to restore Gulf of Mexico production after Hurricane Isaias made landfall on October 10.