A coronal mass ejection heading toward Earth could raise geomagnetic activity overnight into October 9. NOAA forecasts G1 to G2 conditions, while forecasters say cloud cover and the arrival time will affect visibility.
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center has forecast a likely minor-to-moderate geomagnetic storm on Friday, October 9. A coronal mass ejection left the Sun on October 6 after an M1.4 flare and is expected to reach Earth in the coming hours. NOAA predicts G1 to G2 conditions. The UK Met Office says there is a slight chance of a stronger G3 storm.
If geomagnetic activity strengthens, the northern lights could be visible farther south than usual. NOAA’s alert says aurora may be seen as far south as New York, Wisconsin and Washington state. That is a possibility, not a guarantee. Visibility will depend on when the ejection arrives, cloud cover and the orientation of its magnetic field.
NOAA expects mostly minor effects on technological infrastructure and says they should be manageable. A second, smaller coronal mass ejection may brush Earth over the weekend, according to the Met Office. Space-weather conditions are expected to remain unsettled over the next few days.