Vodovozov warns against mixing mortality measures for resistant infections

Physician and science journalist Alexey Vodovozov challenged comparisons between deaths from bacterial antibiotic resistance and cancer mortality. Speaking to RBC, he said such comparisons mix different measures.

A Lancet study published in 2024 projected about 1.91 million deaths attributable to bacterial antibiotic resistance in 2050 and 8.22 million deaths associated with resistant infections. These are model estimates rather than inevitable outcomes.

The attributable measure estimates additional deaths compared with a scenario in which resistant infections are replaced by infections susceptible to treatment. The associated measure instead assumes those infections do not occur. It therefore captures a broader burden and cannot substitute for deaths attributable to resistance itself.

For 2021, the researchers estimated 1.14 million deaths attributable to resistance. Vodovozov said the problem already exists and is worsened by inappropriate antibiotic use and insufficient infection prevention.

For comparison, he cited a JAMA Network Open study that estimated 9.7 million cancer deaths in 2022. That study projected about 18.5 million cancer deaths in 2050.