Oil supplies from the Persian Gulf have nearly returned to prewar levels, but U.S. drivers have yet to see a comparable drop at the pump. Analysts point to higher transport costs and fears of renewed disruption.
About four in every 10 barrels of crude leaving the region now travel by routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, tracking firm Kpler said. Tanker traffic through the strait has also risen considerably from its wartime low, helping exports recover even as shipping routes have become costlier and more complex.
Oil benchmarks have eased in recent weeks. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at about $92 a barrel, roughly 9% below their Sept. 15 level but still more than 40% above prewar prices. AAA put the U.S. average for a gallon of gasoline at $4.36. That was down about 21 cents over the past month, yet 46% higher than before the war.
Pump prices do not move in lockstep with crude. Retailers need time to sell fuel bought when oil was more expensive. Analysts also say companies are paying more to move crude. Tankers have used ship-to-ship transfers at sea to hand cargo to vessels considered less exposed to attack. Some captains are being paid more for hazardous voyages. The Financial Times reported this week that base salaries for some had reached $100,000 a month, with bonuses of up to $50,000 per trip, compared with typical monthly pay of $15,000.
The United States is the world’s largest oil producer and imports only a small volume from the Middle East, but it remains exposed to global prices. Iran’s closure of the strait after a major U.S.-Israeli attack in winter caused the largest oil supply shock on record. Prices surged and inflation reached its highest level since 2023. Alternative routes eased the impact, though exports stayed below prewar levels until recently.
Further disruption remains possible. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline can carry up to 7 million barrels a day, about 5 million of them for export. It was temporarily shut last month after an attack by Iran-aligned Houthi militants. Reuters reported that exports through the pipeline had recovered to 5.8 million barrels a day earlier this week. Analysts remain concerned about possible attacks on the pipeline or tankers near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which leads into the Red Sea.
Analysts who spoke to ABC News said traders are unsure whether the rebound in Middle Eastern supply will last. Investors are pricing in the possibility of renewed large-scale fighting around Hormuz or attacks on oil infrastructure. As long as that uncertainty and higher transport costs persist, fuel prices may remain elevated even as more oil moves through the region.