IEA lowers 2026 global oil demand estimate to 102.38 million barrels a day
The International Energy Agency lowered its estimate of global oil demand in 2026 to 102.38 million barrels a day. Its projected recovery in 2027 would still leave consumption below its 2025 level.
The October report projects an average annual demand decline of about 2.6 million barrels a day. Last month’s consumption estimate for 2026 was 102.45 million. The agency links weaker demand to limited product availability, high prices and worsening economic prospects amid the war involving Iran.
Demand is forecast at 104.38 million barrels a day in 2027, down from the previous estimate of 105.01 million. Expected annual growth is about two million barrels a day. The IEA expects consumption to resume year-on-year monthly growth no earlier than March 2027.
Demand in OECD countries is estimated at 45.54 million barrels a day in 2026, with other countries accounting for 56.84 million. The respective forecasts for next year are 45.76 million and 58.62 million barrels a day.
Observed global oil stocks fell by ten million barrels in September to below 7.8 billion. A decline of 113 million barrels on land exceeded a 103 million-barrel increase in oil held aboard tankers. Demand, supply and inventories are distinct indicators examined separately by the agency.
