IEEFA warns EU may need to reduce winter gas consumption

The EU may need to use 7% less gas this winter, equivalent to about 14 billion cubic metres, than in the previous season. IEEFA published the projection on October 9.

European storage sites were slightly more than 70% full in early October, the lowest seasonal level since records began in 2011. Politico linked the risk of a shortfall to low stocks and disruptions to global supplies amid the Middle East conflict.

IEEFA estimates that storage could supply roughly 7 billion cubic metres less gas to the market than last winter. Its analysis identifies the end of Russian liquefied gas imports from January 2027 as an additional pressure.

The institute does not predict that storage will inevitably run empty. Its calculation points to a possible need to reduce demand if additional supplies do not cover the missing volumes. Politico compares 14 billion cubic metres with enough gas to power 10–12 million European households.

High prices and a less favourable gap between summer and winter contracts have weakened incentives to inject gas into storage. Low stocks during cold weather increase the risk of costly purchases and restrictions on consumption.