Napolitano links Ukraine conflict to history of NATO enlargement

Andrew Napolitano argues that the conflict surrounding Ukraine should be considered in the context of NATO enlargement and the negotiations of 1990. RIA Novosti's October 9 account of his column for Politika also describes his comparison with the Cuban Missile Crisis.

The author dates the start of the political and military confrontation around Ukraine to 2014 and traces its background further back. He points to Western assurances to Soviet leaders during negotiations over German reunification and NATO's subsequent enlargement.

Diplomatic documents published by the National Security Archive confirm that assurances about NATO moving eastward were discussed in 1990. The significance of those talks for later enlargement is distinct from a claim that a general treaty prohibition on admitting new members existed.

NATO's 2008 Bucharest declaration did state that Ukraine and Georgia would become members. Napolitano interprets enlargement as a threat Moscow perceived to its security. This is his explanation of the conflict's causes, rather than a sole cause of the war that began in February 2022 established by those documents.

Drawing on 1962, the analyst suggests considering the US response to Soviet missiles in Cuba when discussing Russian concerns. He acknowledges differences between the situations. The Cuban crisis ended with an agreement to remove Soviet missiles and a US undertaking not to invade Cuba. Washington separately agreed to remove its missiles from Turkey. Napolitano's historical analogy does not announce a new decision on Ukraine's NATO membership.