OPEC raises US liquids output forecast while holding non-OPEC+ growth outlook

OPEC raised its forecast for US liquids production growth in 2026 by 50,000 barrels a day to 500,000. It kept its overall growth estimate for countries outside OPEC+ unchanged.

The October report projects US production of 22.72 million barrels a day. Expected growth in Latin American countries outside the alliance was also raised, from 750,000 to 800,000 barrels a day.

Those revisions are offset by a weaker outlook for Middle Eastern countries outside OPEC+, excluding the United Arab Emirates. OPEC now expects their production to decline by 840,000 barrels a day, compared with a previously forecast fall of 720,000.

Overall liquids production outside OPEC+ is forecast to increase by 640,000 barrels a day to 54.84 million in 2026. Brazil, the United States, Canada and Argentina are identified as the main contributors to growth.

For 2027, OPEC maintained expected growth of 620,000 barrels a day to 55.45 million. These figures concern total liquid hydrocarbons and forecast annual production, rather than crude oil alone or completed full-year results.