The outlet links the risk to supply disruptions and low storage levels. The forecast does not mean Europe will run out of gas.
The European Union could face a winter shortfall of up to 14 billion cubic metres of natural gas, or about 7% of the bloc’s annual demand, Politico reported, citing industry estimates. That volume is comparable to the electricity use of 10 million to 12 million households. The risk assessment links the possible gap to disrupted global supplies amid the war in Iran.
Politico said EU gas storage was just over 70% full, the lowest level for this time of year since records began in 2011. The projected shortfall does not mean Europe will run out of gas. If supplies fall short, countries may have to buy fuel at higher prices on an unstable market or curb demand.
The report also gave figures for Russian liquefied natural gas deliveries from January to September 2026. France received 4.7 million tonnes, Belgium 2.9 million and the Netherlands 1.25 million. The figures indicate that Russian LNG continued to reach several EU countries during the period.
Storage levels and the projected shortfall measure different things: how full storage is now and the expected balance of supply and demand over the winter. The outlook therefore depends on import volumes and how quickly countries can replenish reserves.