Options data show investors hedging against a tech pullback as markets weigh AI risks

Open interest in QQQ puts rose to its highest put-to-call ratio since late June, while the session’s largest individual trades sent mixed signals about whether investors expect a sustained selloff.

The Nasdaq-100 fell as much as 1.8% on Thursday after the Financial Times reported that OpenAI’s revenue was below earlier expectations. CNBC, citing Barchart data, said the ratio of outstanding put contracts to calls on the Invesco QQQ Trust reached 1.49, its highest level since the final week of June.

The shift toward puts has been building since August, even as large technology shares climbed to record highs through Tuesday. CNBC also reported bearish options trades in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust and Meta Platforms on Wednesday. The broader picture was less one-sided: put-to-call measures for SPY and the S&P 500 Index were near their averages, according to the report.

Several of Thursday’s largest QQQ trades pointed in opposite directions. During regular hours, a trader sold nearly 5,000 March-expiry $740 puts for about $15 million. Later, another trader bought 6,500 March $835 calls for more than $8 million. CNBC said the calls would need a roughly 14% rise in the index to pay off.

After regular trading, a separate position turned more defensive. CNBC reported a purchase of 15,000 January 15 $680 puts for $16 million alongside a sale of the same number of October 16 $760 calls for $4 million. The outlet described the combined $20 million in premiums as the day’s largest-premium trade.

The trades do not establish a market forecast. Don Kaufman, co-founder of TheoTrade, told CNBC that neither bond-market moves nor the OpenAI report had caused substantial damage so far. He said a prolonged decline would require selling pressure to shift the market from absorbing losses to amplifying them.