Analysts expect Bank of Russia to hold rate at 14% on October 23

Analysts surveyed by RIA Novosti expect the Bank of Russia to keep its key rate at 14% on October 23. Their views on the pause's duration range from a possible December cut to an unchanged rate into spring 2027.

The central bank held its rate on September 11 after ten consecutive cuts. Its official announcement schedules the next decision and medium-term forecast for October 23.

BCS World of Investments chief economist Ilya Fyodorov sees a hold as October's main scenario. He does not yet see grounds for an increase and expects sustained easing no earlier than the first quarter of 2027. He believes December could bring a choice between maintaining the rate and resuming cuts.

Expert RA chief economist Anton Tabakh pointed to faster inflation, one-off pressures and high inflation expectations. He sees a risk of 14% lasting until spring if conditions do not improve, as well as a risk of an increase.

NRA ratings managing director Sergey Klisenko puts the likelihood of an October cut close to zero. He cited an Economy Ministry estimate of annual inflation reaching 7.17% on October 5 following utility tariff adjustments. In his view, there is effectively no room for cuts before year-end.

Finam macroeconomic analysis head Olga Belenkaya also considers a 14% hold the most likely outcome. PSB analyst Denis Popov links the pause to inflation, strong lending and household and business expectations. PSB's baseline envisages no reduction until at least the end of 2026.

Dom.RF Bank macroeconomic analysis director Zhanna Smirnova sees a possible December cut as consumer demand and wage growth slow. She considers a hold through year-end equally likely. She expects more discussion of an increase, but does not yet see it becoming an alternative to keeping the rate unchanged.

Sovcombank chief analyst Mikhail Vasilyev expects the central bank to consider only a hold in October. He also sees a possible upward revision in the 2027 average-rate forecast from 10.5–12.5% to 11–13%, citing autumn inflation and the risk of exceeding the central bank's 6–7% inflation forecast for this year.

The Bank of Russia has scheduled publication of its rate decision and medium-term forecast for 13:30 Moscow time on October 23.