Analysts raise Russia’s 2026 inflation forecast to 7.1% in central bank survey

Analysts surveyed by the Bank of Russia raised their 2026 inflation forecast to 7.1% from 6.6% and GDP growth expectations to 0.6% from 0.5%. The survey ran on October 9–13 and involved 32 economists.

Expectations for the average key rate in 2026 rose to 14.6% from 14.5%. The figures are outside analysts’ forecasts collected by the regulator, rather than a Bank of Russia rate decision.

For 2027, respondents kept GDP growth at 1.2%, while revising the 2028 forecast to 1.6% from 1.7%. The 2029 expectation remained 1.8%. Inflation forecasts rose to 5.0% for 2027 and 4.2% for 2028, with 4.0% still expected in 2029.

The projected average key rate increased to 12.8% in 2027, 10.8% in 2028 and 9.2% in 2029. The neutral-rate estimate also rose to 8.5% from 8.0%.

The oil-price assumption for taxation increased to $70 a barrel in 2026, $59 in 2027 and $57 in 2028. It remained $56 for 2029. Expected average rouble-dollar exchange rates were 80.0, 89.4, 94.8 and 96.4 roubles respectively across 2026–2029.