EU gas shortfall could reach 15% in severe-winter scenario, ENTSOG says
Europe’s gas network operators say a combination of severe cold, constrained LNG supplies and a complete halt to Russian pipeline imports could leave demand partly unmet. The assessment describes a stress scenario, not a prediction.
The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) said the European Union could face a gas shortfall of up to 15% of demand this winter if severe cold coincides with limited liquefied natural gas (LNG) availability and a complete stop to Russian pipeline supplies. The figure comes from the network’s winter outlook for 2026–2027, published on October 8.
The worst-case estimate is two percentage points higher than in ENTSOG’s outlook for the previous winter, which put the potential need for demand reductions at up to 13% under a similar combination of cold weather, restricted LNG imports and no Russian pipeline gas.
The outlook also points to lower starting inventories. EU underground storage was 72% full on October 1, compared with 83% a year earlier, a difference of about 11 billion cubic metres. If LNG supplies remain constrained, stocks could fall well below 30% by the end of winter, increasing exposure to a late-season cold spell and making it harder to refill storage during the summer.
Central, eastern and southeastern Europe are particularly exposed to infrastructure bottlenecks that can limit the movement of additional gas from western parts of the continent. ENTSOG says the network can still supply consumers if enough LNG is available, so the projected gap is a stress-test outcome rather than an expected shortage.
The outlook’s most severe scenario assumes a full halt to Russian pipeline imports. The European Commission said on October 8 that the EU gas system remains sufficiently flexible to meet demand this winter despite storage levels below historical norms. The outlook therefore highlights how supply availability, weather and cross-border capacity could combine to strain the market, rather than establishing that households or industry will necessarily face shortages.
