Resolve poll puts Labor on 29% as One Nation slips to 25%

Labor leads the latest Resolve Political Monitor on primary voting intentions, while nearly half of respondents blame the federal government for cost-of-living pressures.

The survey, reported by The Sydney Morning Herald on October 11, puts Labor on 29%, One Nation on 25%, the Coalition on 23% and the Greens on 12%. Resolve surveyed 2,250 voters from Tuesday to Saturday and reported a margin of error of 2.1 percentage points.

One Nation fell two points from the previous month, while Labor and the Greens each gained one point and the Coalition lost one. Those monthly changes fall within the stated margin of error, so the poll does not establish a decisive shift in party support.

Asked who bears primary responsibility for cost-of-living pressures, 46% blamed federal Labor, up six points since March. Global factors, including the wars in Iran and Ukraine, were cited by 26%, while 4% blamed the Reserve Bank.

Expectations about the next election also changed. The proportion expecting One Nation to win fell eight points to 20%. Labor remained the most widely expected winner on 32%, while 20% expected a Coalition victory. These figures measure respondents' expectations, rather than a forecast of the result.

Pauline Hanson's performance received positive ratings from 45% and negative ratings from 41%. Her net performance rating fell six points over the month. Only 40% of all respondents knew that David Shoebridge had replaced Larissa Waters as Greens leader.