The Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s withdrawal from Mekelle has not stopped renewed fighting in the region. An Al Jazeera analysis published on October 9 warns that reports of Eritrean troops and Ethiopia’s dispute with its neighbours over Red Sea access could widen the conflict.
The Associated Press reported that government-allied fighters entered Mekelle on October 4 after the TPLF announced its withdrawal. The agency identified the fighters as members of the Tigray Peace Force, which is aligned with Ethiopia’s federal authorities. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had reiterated his country’s demand for access to the sea.
Reports of fighting outside the regional capital continued after it came under the control of government allies. Reuters reported artillery fire and air strikes in Tigray on October 5. A humanitarian bulletin said at least 17 people were killed in one of the attacks. Reuters said it could not independently verify the reports.
Reports that Eritrean troops had crossed the border added to concern. The AP cited statements from a Tigray Peace Force commander and conflict monitor ACLED alleging that Eritrean personnel entered northern towns and crossed into Ethiopia. The agency could not independently verify those accounts. Eritrea’s information minister neither directly confirmed nor denied them.
The reports came amid worsening relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara. Ethiopia closed its embassy in Eritrea and expelled 10 diplomats on October 1. Eritrea responded by severing diplomatic ties. The governments have traded accusations, including over support for armed opposition groups.
Regional risks also stem from Ethiopia’s longstanding dispute with its neighbours over access to the Red Sea. Abiy raised the issue again in parliament on Monday. On October 4, the leaders of Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia met in New Alamein, Egypt. Reuters reported that they agreed to coordinate in case the conflict widened further. Al Jazeera noted that the meeting did not create a formal military alliance and that the countries have different interests.
Sudan’s war and Egypt’s dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam add to regional tension, but do not in themselves show that neighbouring states intend to intervene. Al Jazeera cited analysts who said a prolonged conflict could tie down Ethiopian forces, while a rapid federal victory could allow the government to focus on regional rivals.
TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael said his forces would continue fighting. Al Jazeera’s analysis therefore sees the withdrawal from Mekelle as a possible shift to a prolonged conflict rather than its end. Direct military intervention by neighbouring states remains unconfirmed.