BTG/Nexus poll shows Bolsonaro and Lula nearly level before Brazil runoff

Flávio Bolsonaro has 50.3% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 49.7% in the valid-vote calculation of a new BTG/Nexus poll. The gap between the candidates is within the survey's margin of error.

The survey interviewed 2002 people between October 16 and 18. Its valid-vote calculation excludes undecided respondents and those intending to cast blank or invalid ballots, so the percentages do not represent the entire sample.

In the previous survey, support on the same basis was approximately 52% for Bolsonaro and 48% for Lula. The latest estimate indicates that the gap has narrowed.

Brazil's presidential runoff is scheduled for October 25. In the first round on October 4, Bolsonaro received 47.03% and Lula 45.16%. Neither secured the majority needed to win.