ENTSOG models EU gas storage falling to 11% under supply constraints

EU gas storage could fall to 11% by the end of March 2027 if LNG supplies are constrained and Russian pipeline imports stop, according to ENTSOG's winter outlook.

Under normal winter conditions, sufficient LNG availability would leave storage at 21% after Russian pipeline deliveries stop. With constrained LNG imports, the level falls to 11%, and the model requires demand reduction or allows for unmet demand.

In a cold winter without Russian pipeline gas, potential unmet demand or necessary demand reduction reaches 15% under constrained LNG supply. Storage at 11% corresponds to strategic reserves, whose use depends on national rules.

EU storage was 72% full on 1 October, compared with 83% a year earlier. ENTSOG warns that heavy winter withdrawals could complicate summer refilling. The report tests different combinations of demand and supply, so its findings describe risks under specified conditions.