ENTSOG models EU storage levels without Russian pipeline gas

EU gas storage could be 55% full by the end of September 2027 if Russian pipeline supplies stop completely and LNG availability is limited. This is an ENTSOG modelling result reported by RIA Novosti on October 9.

Greater LNG availability produces different results: 81% under the LNG Optimal scenario and 88% with increased LNG volumes. Both are below the 90% target, but the 55% figure is not an unconditional forecast covering every supply scenario.

The calculations start with storage 72% full on October 1, 2026, compared with 83% a year earlier. The study links next summer's refilling potential to the gas remaining after winter. Severe depletion can make rebuilding stocks harder because injection rates are constrained by technical capacity.

The outlook considers supply risks ahead of winter 2027/28 as Russian deliveries are reduced and replaced with other sources. Russian authorities criticise that move, linking it to additional costs and risks. ENTSOG's estimates describe combinations of supply, demand and storage conditions rather than declaring a shortage inevitable.